Sunday, October 2, 2011

Market Analysis & Prediction- Tour Guide from the Underworld

This little loli is without question the most talked about card in the game currently. I know thefirsthokage6 did a recent Market Watch YouTube video on this card, but that was a little bit ago, and I would like to provide an update on it. In fact I will be doing more frequent Market Analysis and Prediction posts than hokage does Market Watch videos, so I hope that you find it informative. I personally think that is his best content, but then again, to me, this game is about the money. I can't say I'm on hokage's level in terms of money advice for this game, but we both have the same mindset. Take my advice with a grain of salt, since this is Yu-Gi-Oh afterall, where you never know what's gonna happen 2 weeks down the line.

I'll be starting this analysis from September 1st, when the XYZ ruling clarification occurred. On that day, and I know because I was a very active on it, was basically the equivalent to a stock market crash. Within a matter of roughly 6 hours, Tour Guide's price went from ~$180 all the way down to $80. I ended up selling my set to Troll & Toad at $110 a piece, Danny's set at $100 a piece on eBay, and we averaged out the values so we got the same amount on each Tour Guide. I quickly realized my mistake though, since even with the ruling clarification, Tour Guide was still a busted card. I purchased another set at $80 a piece, and I was content. I got my set for about a total of $100 altogether in the first place, so I wasn't too concerned about the profit/losing money aspect of it.

Throughout the month, Tour Guide has steadily increased in price again. All of the haters on various forums went from an attitude of "ha ha, look at all those suckers who spent all that money. I was smart for not picking them up!" to "bawww, I wish I could afford Tour Guides". It's perfectly fine if you can't afford them or just don't want to buy them, I understand that, but they shouldn't chastise the people that CAN afford them, or are willing to pay for them. Just look at DAD/Destiny Draw format where each DAD was about $300 a piece, CCV was $250, each D-Draw and Malicious was $50, then you had the synchros like Goyo. The economy was better back then, but still...

Currently, looking at the Completed Listings on eBay, Tour Guide ranges from $130-150. In fact Troll & Toad is buying 1st ed ones at $120 a piece, and Unlimited ones at $110. A few weeks ago that figure was about $65.

With the upcoming release of Darkworld and Photon Shockwave (ie Rescue Rabbit), I do not see Tour Guide's price going down anytime soon, granted we don't get a random emergency ban list or a very out-of-the-blue reprint. Regardless of Darkworld's performance at YCS Columbus, Tour Guide will at least be present in Plant and Agent lists, so similar to Toronto, triple Tour Guide will be seen in a lot of the top 32 deck lists. My prediction is that Tour Guide will go up to $180-200 regardless of how Darkworld does, simply because it's inevitably going to be in the top lists anyway.

One thing to take into consideration though, is the release of the Wave 2 tins. With two EXVC packs per tin, that increases the chances of more Tour Guides being introduced into the secondary market. However, it looks like the Wave 2 tins aren't going to be as good as the Wave 1 tins, and since people only need 2 Warnings rather than 3 like Duality, people simply won't buy as many of them. I purchased 11 Wave 1 tins (2 Leviathan, 9 Wind-Up, and considering getting more), but I'll probably only buy 4 Wave 2 tins (not sure how many of each yet). That being said, I will stick with my original prediction above, and minus $10 from it just to take the Wave 2 tins into consideration. $170-190 would be my altered estimate.

No comments:

Post a Comment