Friday, October 21, 2011

YCS Columbus Predictions + Ramblings

I find it interesting how when a new decktype gets released, people put a lot of weight into the results of the first YCS it shows up in. Which is kinda funny because theoretically that's when the amount of hate towards it will be at its maximum. I remember people hyping Dragunity a lot, and when it failed to perform well at whatever YCS it was that they debuted in, people pretty much wrote it off as just hype. Agents went through a very similar scenario but even with the amount of hate that people probably had for it, it still put up great results. That's what differentiates a deck being hype and it actually being good. Going into this YCS, I believe the top 3 decks will be Agents, Plants, and Darkworld, not necessarily in that order; Darkworld being the most played and the most hated on. The amount of hate towards it may mean that it won't win the whole event, but at the same time its odds become better of doing so, simply due to the sheer number of people running it.

I think decks like TG, GK, GB, Gadgets, Sabers, Monarchs, Gemini, etc may represent like 3-4 spots in the top 32. I think you would have to be pretty bold to run any of those decks though since we have a pretty clear top 3 list at this point. I know I wouldn't travel all that way to run anything else. If you are "down the street" from the event though, eh, whatever you wanna do is fine since you don't have all those travel expenses.

Overall, I'm going to predict that the top 32 will consist of 11 DW, 10 Agent, 7 Plant, and 4 Other. Note that I feel that these kinds of predictions and predicting the winner once the top 32 has been revealed, is rather pointless. Whenever you look on the forums, by the end of it all, nearly everyone is wrong in their prediction. You get random guy that's like "oh yea my boy [insert name here]'s got this without a doubt" and then they lose in their top 32 match, or something of that nature. It's almost like trying to predict where a bolt of lightning will strike in an open field with no trees. But, I think the numbers will be something like that, +/- 2 for each deck.

Billy Brake put up a good article regarding Darkworld on ARG's Articles site. For some reason I like the thought of using Marionette Mite, since it's literally a Puppet Plant for Darkworlds, but it seems to always miss everyone's list of useful cards against them. Summon my Grapha, Mite your Grapha, swing for game? I dunno, I guess it's too specific of a card (ie only hits Fiend and Zombie) when there are so many viable decks and side space being limited; stuff like DD Crow and Debunk hit a larger range of decks, hence why those kinds of cards get played over stuff like Mite.

Today I'll work on my side for tomorrow's tournament. I was actually thinking of setting aside like 20-25 cards, looking at what people are playing, and making my 15 that way. It's kind of a bitch move, but it's what the smart person would do. What I've always done is make my 15 and only bring my trade binder, and be sad that I had stuff like Mirror of Oaths in my side when 0 people were playing GB, but put them in due to word-of-mouth saying GB was popular. Another example, normally I may've decided to put Puppet Plants in since Kim came back to play Sams and said he'd be there this weekend, but if he didn't show up, then those spots would be useless. When you play strictly at locals, you gotta build your side for the people that you know will give you a challenge.

So I read the final match coverage of Grand Prix Brisbane where the UB guy won, like most blue control decks, the objective is to basically counter big threats that you can't deal with, use removal on the stuff that you don't need to counterspell, drop your big guy, and ride it out to victory. In this deck keep the Consecrated Sphinx alive and you'll draw more answers than your opponent does threats. Meh, this is exactly what I meant by pure control, and I think a lot of the singles I bought from Troll were White or like the Black/White land. FML. The thing is Blue/Black/White is so much more expensive than that Blue/Black deck that won, and the best it did was 24th in that tourney :S Oh well, at least I didn't drop money on the Lilianas; I might alter it to be primarily UB and splash some white, dunno yet! Either way Consecrated Sphinx seems pretty boss so need to pick those up. If I stick with Blue/Black, I wouldn't even need to sell my Tour Guides since the deck isn't too terribly expensive, compared to Solar Flare.

So I just got an e-mail from eBay congratulating me and welcoming to their PowerSeller program. I got invited on my old account and actually turned it down so it's not too big of a deal to me. Seems like now they just add you into it. What I find funny is that they just put restrictions on my account like a week ago, now I have to wait like 2 weeks til I can do anything with the money I get from selling (like use it or transfer it), because like I talked about in my Fundamental Flaws article, the whole 'people filing Item Not Received cases' thing. Yea, just ignore the fact I have like a near-perfect rating.

In future posts I don't want to have to put "Ramblings" to indicate that I'm going to be talking about stuff other than what I have written for the title. Just assume I will since that's just the way I am. I will be doing a small Market Analysis post later today so be on the lookout for that :)


  1. Link me to Brake's article? Otherwise, good post here; I ultimately agree that the top 16-32 spots will most likely consist of Agents, Dark Worlds, Plants, and some random decks that people will least expect to have a top spot at tournaments like these.